Avoiding the Trap of Ignorant Simplism: A Deeper Look at Problem Solving

How First Principles Thinking and Caution in Complexity Can Prevent Over-Simplification in Science and Decision-Making

In a previous article, I mentioned the first-principles method for solving complex problems【link】. In that article, I clearly stated the basic principle for solving complex problems: we need to break them down to a level that is operable for humans and where the outcomes can be accurately predicted. This differs from the traditional reductionist approach, which aims to break down the problem to its smallest possible components in order to understand and solve it.

I believe the intra-tumoral chlorine dioxide injection therapy I invented adheres to this basic principle. It not only follows first principles but also fits the core principles of solving complex problems. By injecting chlorine dioxide directly into the tumor, I can target the cancer precisely without the systemic side effects of traditional chemotherapy and without the need to excise healthy tissues. This makes the treatment more accurate. I am not challenging reductionism itself but rather adopting a new perspective that successfully refutes the limitations of extreme reductionism. However, I also realize that I may have overlooked another extreme.

Opposite to extreme reductionism (which I call “extreme reductionism”) is what I refer to as “ignorant simplism.” Ignorant simplism occurs when individuals intentionally simplify the complexity of a problem, ignoring the intricate variables and treating the problem as though it can be solved by a simple breakdown. Simplists believe that no matter how complex a problem is, they can reduce it to just one or two simple factors to resolve it easily. For example, some people might try to predict tomorrow’s weather by observing the cloud shapes in the evening; others might still cling to traditional chemotherapy methods, believing it is the only way to cure cancer.

In reality, there are far more people who fall into the trap of ignorant simplism than those who follow extreme reductionism. These people tend to disregard complex variables and attempt to solve problems with a rigid, one-size-fits-all approach. Even many highly educated individuals might unintentionally fall into the trap of ignorant simplism. In other words, ignorant simplism is an error that everyone can make.

Yesterday, I also deeply felt the risks of ignorant simplism. While preparing chlorine dioxide, I was too careless, mixing sodium chlorite at about 80°C with citric acid solution at the same temperature in a 250ml reaction vessel, with 50g of sodium chlorite. During the process, I failed to notice that the pressure relief valve should have been opened, resulting in an explosion. Two high borosilicate glass containers shattered, causing glass shards to fly and leaving me with over ten cuts on my body, fortunately sparing my eyes. As the authority on chlorine dioxide applications, I had ignored a basic principle: chlorine dioxide can explode under high temperatures and pressure. I nearly paid a heavy price for my negligence (and could have even become disabled). This experience made me realize that while I proposed the basic principles for solving complex problems, when faced with seemingly simple situations, I may still, due to overconfidence, neglect the complex variables, leading to unforeseen consequences.

Therefore, I need to add a statement to the basic principles for solving complex problems: when using first principles to solve complex problems, we should break them down to the finest level possible, to a point where we can operate on it and predict the outcome. Only then will the complexity of the problem be fully considered, avoiding falling into the trap of ignorant simplism.

The finer a problem is broken down, the more variables it involves. Ignorant simplists, however, tend to jump to a new field and believe that with a simplistic approach, they can solve complex problems. They are unaware that they are likely ignoring key variables they should know. For instance, in cancer treatment, surgery and chemotherapy are products of ignorant simplism. While surgery can remove tumors, it often inadvertently damages healthy tissues, causing irreversible side effects; chemotherapy, on the other hand, works by killing cells throughout the body but overlooks the damage to the immune system and other healthy cells.

From my perspective, the most typical example of ignorant simplism is the foreign policy of US President Donald Trump. Trump applies a business management approach to running the country, ignoring the complexity of statecraft, especially in diplomacy and international economics, where overly simplistic thinking often leads to unforeseen consequences. In particular, when the primary task of a nation is not just to make money but to ensure its strength, stability, and international standing, Trump’s strategy clearly contains major flaws.

For example, one prominent feature of Trump’s foreign policy was extreme cost-saving. His aggressive decisions regarding financial aid to Ukraine violated America’s traditional values and damaged its international image, indirectly affecting the global status of the US dollar. The American economic model is different from a business operation, and factors like diplomatic policies, international trade, and monetary status are far more complex than simple government spending and budgets. If these complex variables are not adequately considered, America’s international standing and economic status will face severe challenges.

Based on my research and analysis, if the international reserve status of the US dollar declines, it could lead to multiple losses. Firstly, the US would lose its global wealth from seigniorage; secondly, the international trade settlement costs for American companies would rise. Additionally, the US would lose its control over the global financial system, especially regarding its sanction policies, which could have severe consequences. In general, if Trump continues to adhere to this foreign policy, America’s international position could quickly decline, potentially even leading to an economic crisis.

Finally, this experience has made me realize that whether in scientific experiments or national management, we must maintain enough sensitivity and caution. Simplification often leads to deeper complexity, and only by analyzing each variable carefully can we truly unlock the key to solving problems. Just as my dangerous experience in the chlorine dioxide experiment showed, solving complex problems requires us to always remain vigilant and break down the problem to the finest level possible, thus avoiding falling into the trap of ignorant simplism.